Political Analyst Predicted BBM Chances Of Losing Is Slim, Here's Why!

Sass Rogando Sasot, an international relations expert and political analyst, expected a BBM victory based on the recent Publicus Asia survey, in which BBM received 56.7 percent of the votes.

It does not, however, imply that BBM cannot lose to his opponents, although the chances are minimal if their respective campaign teams use all of the methods in the playbook and gain all of their rivals' swing voters.

Sasot arrived at her conclusion of a BBM victory by circling a specific figure she considered was key in this election - swing voters.

You can read Sasot's whole FB post right now, and please leave a comment below if you agree with her analysis.

ESTIMATING SWING VOTERS

The Publicus Survey has this added feature about firmness of choice. This is a good way to estimate possible swing voters. To get the possible swing voters, I added all the columns except ” “I will definitely not change my choice” because that’s the only column that has zero probability of changing one’s votes.

Among the presidential candidates, BBM got the lowest possible swing voters: 30.1%

Leni’s swing voters = 41.6%

Isko = 64.1%

Go = 54.8%

Manny = 53.3%

Ping = 69.8%

———

What can we infer from this?

BBM and Leni have the strong political bases. BBM has the strongest. This means that no matter issue you throw, only 30.1% of those who chose BBM would probably change their mind, while 41.6% of Leni’s would change their mind.

To defeat BBM, you must make sure you don’t lose your swing voters and you get the swing voters of all candidates, including BBM’s.

It’s going to be a very, very, difficult climb. WHY? At this point, BBM’s camp doesn’t need to throw mud because by simply not making any candidate look bad he’s already got this very high rating. The other candidate would need to throw all the mud they can get at BBM AND they should also throw mud at other candidates in order to get all their swing voters. If they can successfully get ALL the swing voters of other candidates, they have a narrow chance of defeating BBM.

If anything else fails, there’s always Smarmagic. ✌🏼😁
Source: For the Motherland – Sass Rogando Sasot, pinoytrendingnews.net



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